Bestseller Lists and Product Variety: The Case of Book Sales

This paper uses detailed weekly data on sales of hardcover fiction books to evaluate the impact of the New York Times bestseller list on sales. In order to circumvent the obvious problem of simultaneity of sales and bestseller status, the analysis exploits time lags and accidental omissions in the construction of the list. The estimates suggest that appearing on the bestseller list results in a modest, transitory increase in sales (on the order of 7 percent). The paper discusses how, in principle, the additional concentration of demand on top-selling books could lead to a reduction in the privately optimal number of books to publish. However, the empirical results are inconclusive with respect to the bestseller list’s likely impact on product variety. Stanford University and NBER; [email protected]. I am thankful to the Hoover Institution, where I conducted this research as a National Fellow, and to Bookscan, who provided the essential data. The research has benefitted from helpful conversations with Jim King, Phillip Leslie, and Joel Sobel, among many others. Scott Rasmussen provided excellent research assistance. Any errors are mine.